Skip to content
Back to Football
Football

CFP Rankings: How Would the BCS Project This Year’s Rankings?

By Kyle Nachtsheim
6:01 PM 8 min read
BCS CFP College Football Playoff Predictor

The College Football Playoff (CFP) selection committee will release its first playoff ranking tonight at 7 p.m. ET on ESPN, and the rankings come with plenty of questions. With only three undefeated teams heading into the first ranking — the fewest since 2014 — the selection committee will have its work cut out for it.

More than half of the teams ranked in the current Associate Press Top 25 have more than two losses. Florida has three losses while sitting at No. 25. Boise State and New Mexico, who became ranked for the first time in program history on Sunday, are the lone Group of Six representatives.

The Big 12 is the only power conference that has more than two teams with either one loss or an undefeated record. Utah and BYU renew their “Holy War” rivalry Saturday, while Texas Tech does not have either team on its schedule.

Advertisements

Syndicate Sports projects what the Top 25 playoff ranking could look like using the old Bowl Championship Series formula. This exercise offers a look at how the former BCS system might evaluate the current college football landscape.

Using both AP and USA Today coaches polls, as well as the Billingsley, Colley and Massey computer rankings, we prompted ChatGPT to weigh the human polls and computer rankings equally, with each category accounting for 33.3% of the overall formula.

Teams ranked 25-21

New Mexico comes in at No. 25 after securing the school’s eighth season with at least seven wins since leaving the Western Athletic Conference in 1999. Lobos running back Scottre Humphrey leads the Mountain West with 11 rushing touchdowns, while safety Austin Brawley has returned two interceptions for touchdowns.

South Carolina has won at least five games in five of Shane Beamer’s six seasons at Columbia, placing the Gamecocks at No. 24. Wide receiver DJ Black leads the SEC averaging 22 yards per reception.

Northwestern has rebounded from the final two years under Pat Fitzgerald with a 6-2 record, placing the Wildcats at No. 23. Quarterback Aidan Chiles leads the Big Ten with a 68.8% completion rate. This also the first time since 2020 that the Wildcats have been ranked in the AP poll.

Florida comes in at No. 22, with the computers rankings the Gators higher than either human polls. Despite three losses, Florida has an computer average raking of 19.33, the only team in the bottom eight with an averaging ranking better than 20. One positive is they have already eclipsed their win total from 2025, but theyhave not had a 10-win season since 2019.

Advertisements

Arizona decided that being in the Top 25 is not just for basketball, as the Wildcats come in at No. 21. After having recording two seasons with at least nine wins between 2011 and 2023, Arizona is on track for its second consecutive nine-win season.. The only other time this happened in Tucson was in 1974-75, when the Wildcats dominated the WAC.

Teams ranked 20-16

Despite moving to the Pac-12 this offseason, Boise State is still not considered a power conference program. Regardless of its conference affiliation,, the Broncos continue to dominate and come in at No. 20. Since joining the FBS ranks in 1996, Boise State has had only four seasons in which it failed to win at least seven games. Running back Dylan Riley leads the Pac-12 with 1,049 rushing yards on 165 attempts and nine touchdowns.

Missouri is enjoying its best four-year stretch since joining the SEC in 2012. Eli Drinkwitz has led the Tigers to an 6-2 start, earning them the No. 19 ranking. The computers give Missouri an average ranking just below 23. Running back Jamal Roberts leads the SEC with 1,005 rushing yards, while wide receiver Cayden Lee leads the conference with 756 receiving yards.

With the national media putting Lincoln Riley on the hot seat, he responded with a signature win over then-No. 2 Ohio State. That victory placed the Trojans at No. 18, thanks in part to quarterback Jayden Maiava, who leads the Big Ten with 2,524 passing yards and 20 touchdowns.

Tennessee has brought stability to its coaching position, with Josh Heupel entering his six season on the sideline. Phillip Fulmer, who coached the Volunteers from 1992 to 2008, was the last Tennessee coach to reach his sixth season. Tennessee is ranked No. 17, thanks to its upset over Alabama and close losses to Texas and South Carolina.

Houston received more recognition from the computers than the human polls, with the Cougars ranked No. 16. Houston is seeking just its seventh 10-win season since the Southwest Conference dissolved in 1996. While no player leads the Big 12 in a major statistical category, quarterback Conner Weigman has completed 65.7% of his passes and has a touchdown-to-interception ratio of 20-to-2.

Teams ranked 15-11

Texas Tech has the opposite problem than Houston, with the human polls ranking the Red Raiders higher than the computers. The offseason controversy surrounding the quarterback position has settled, and Texas Tech has recorded its sixth straight season with at least seven wins. The Red Raiders are ranked No. 15. Defensive lineman Anthony Homes Jr. leads the Big 12 with 7.5 sacks, with the team sacking the quarterback 26 times.

Wake Forest was a fixture in the AP poll during its final decade in the Southern Conference, but the Demon Deacons’ appearances in the rankings were few and far between after joining the ACC. Jake Dickert has Wake Forest close to its third ACC championship game appearance. For the first time on this list, the computers and the human polls agree on the team’s No. 14 ranking. Linebacker Langston Hardy leads the ACC with 12.5 tackles for loss.

The computers love Lane Kiffin’s LSU Tigers, ranking them inside the top 10. However, the human polls have LSU at 15th. The Tigers come in at No. 13 and are looking for their fourth season with at least nine wins since winning the national championship in 2019. Quarterback Sam Leavitt has thrown for 2,173 yards and 17 touchdowns, but he is also tied for the SEC lead with eight interceptions.

Kiffin’s former team, Ole Miss, has also experienced an up-and-down season. Despite earning three victories against ranked opponents, the Rebels lost to Florida and Texas when both teams where ranked lower in the polls. Quarterback Trinidad Chambliss leads the SEC with 2,189 yards and 18 touchdowns, but he is tied with Leavitt with eight interceptions. The Rebels are seeking their fourth consecutive 10-win season, which would be the first time in program history they have accomplished that feat.

Despite falling to USC this past Saturday, Ohio State remains in the top 15 in all the polls. The computers give the Buckeyes with an average ranking of 7.33, while the human polls have them either No. 10 or No. 11. Ranked No. 11, Ohio State is led by Heisman Trophy candidate wide receiver Jeremiah Smith, who has 1,067 receiving yards and 13 touchdowns. Both totals lead the Big Ten.

Teams ranked 10-6

Texas, who is also ranked either No. 10 or No. 11 in the human polls, comes in at No. 10, largely because the computers rank the Longhorns seventh. Despite quarterback Arch Manning throwing for just 1,727 yards and 15 touchdowns, Texas has been led by its defense. Defensive end Colin Simmons leads the FBS with 16 tackles for loss and 10.5 sacks.

Alabama comes in at No. 9 despite losing two of its last three games. Quarterback Keelon Russell leads the conference with an average 9.3 yards per attempt and has thrown for 15 touchdowns. The rushing game has been a weakness for the Crimson Tide, with four players recording more than 200 yards. Running back Daniel Hill leads the team with 332 yards.

BYU does not receive much love from the computer rankings, with an average ranking of 11. The Cougars have experienced both ends of the emotional spectrum, following a victory over Notre Dame with a loss to unranked Central Florida. That defeat dropped them out of the top 10 in the computer rankings.

Kentucky comes in at No. 7, thanks to victories over two top-10 teams. First-year coach Will Stein has lead the Wildcats to its first seven-win season since 2023, and they are looking to win 11 games for the first time since 1950. Quarterback Kenny Minchey has thrown for 14 touchdowns and just one interception.

UCLA is one of the final three undefeated teams in FBS, looking to reach 10 wins for the first time since 2014. Ranked No. 6, the Bruins have been led by running back Wayne Knight, who has scored an Big Ten-best 12 rushing touchdowns. Despite their undefeated record, the Bruins have only played one ranked opponent, defeating then-13 Oregon on Oct. 10.

Teams ranked 5-1

For the first time since 2004 Fiesta Bowl, Utah is welcoming a new coach to the sidelines. The Utes are currently 8-0, earning them the No. 5. Like UCLA, the computers are not sold on coach Morgan Scalley’s squad. Utah has only one Top 25 so far but can boost its resume with back-to-back matchups against ranked teams, starting with Saturday’s “Holy War” against BYU.

Notre Dame comes in at No. 4 after defeating Navy on Saturday and preparing for Miami this weekend. The Fighting Irish are looking for revenge against the Hurricanes, as a loss to Miami last season kept Notre Dame out of the playoffs. Quarterback CJ Carr has thrown for 18 touchdowns and just one interception. Running back Nolan James Jr. has rushed for eight touchdowns.

Defending national champion Indiana is No. 3, with its only loss coming against then-No. 4 Ohio State. Syndicate Sports needed to Google the Hooisers to find information on the Hooisers, as five of its six conference games have been decided by fewer than eight points. Running Bask Turbo Richard leads the Big Ten with 745 rushing yards.

Just as they are in both human polls, Georgia is ranked No. 2, while Miami takes the top spot. The computers rank the Bulldogs third, behind Indiana. Gunner Stockton has been the most efficiant quarterback in the SEC, completing a league-best 71.8% of his passes. Linebacker Chris Cole has been causing havoc for opposing offenses, recording three fumble recoveries for 174 return yards and two defensive touchdowns.

Miami has struggled in two of its last three games. The Hurricanes went to overtime against in-state rival Florida State and needed a last-minute onside kick to leave Chapel Hill with a victory over Bill Belichick and North Carolina. A victory over Notre Dame this weekend would all but secure the top spot in the College Football Playoff, barring a loss in ACC play.

How would the playoff look?

Based on these rankings, here is how the CFP would look for the 2026 season.

  • No. 20 Boise State (Group of Six Representative) at No. 5 Utah (Big 12 Champion)
    • Winner faces No. 4 Notre Dame
  • No. 11 Ohio State at No. 6 UCLA (Big Ten Champion)
    • Winner faces No. 3 Indiana
  • No. 10 Texas at No. 7 Kentucky
    • Winner faces No. 2 Georgia (SEC Champion)
  • No. 9 Alabama at No. 8 BYU
    • Winner faces No. 1 Miami (ACC Champion)

The first four teams out of an at-large bid, in order: Ole Miss, LSU, Wake Forest and Texas Tech.

Advertisements